降水观测网络缺口限制了气候变化影响评估
近日，北京师范大学缪驰远团队报道了降水观测网络缺口限制了气候变化影响评估。相关论文于2026年3月25日发表在《自然》杂志上。
可靠的未来气候预测与水资源短缺评估需要兼具空间全面性和时间完整性的降水观测数据，然而全球许多地区仍面临观测稀疏的问题。
研究组评估了全球1900-2022年间221,483个国际交换雨量计的分布情况，并进一步探究在不同情景下哪些区域最需要新增布设雨量计。结果发现，目前全球仅有13.4%的陆地面积符合世界气象组织对年降水量监测的要求，表明观测普遍匮乏，已带来严重的社会经济影响。欧洲的大陆雨量计密度最高（每1,000平方公里2.4个），其中德国在面积超过5万平方公里的国家中密度居首（每1,000平方公里22.4个）。
在全球范围内，受气候变率影响，已有25%的陆地面积亟需扩展雨量计网络，包括南美洲北部、北美洲北部、中非和南亚。若综合考虑高排放情景下的预估降水变化和社会经济条件，印度、格陵兰、玻利维亚和中国因气候敏感性及社会经济脆弱性被列为高需求区域，使得亟需布设的陆地面积比例增至32.1%。该研究揭示了全球降水监测中存在的重大空白，需通过战略性投资增设雨量计，并强调了开放数据获取的必要性。
附：英文原文
Title: Precipitation observing network gaps limit climate change impact assessment
Author: Su, Jiajia, Miao, Chiyuan, Zwiers, Francis, Beck, Hylke, Jones, Phil, Sun, Qiaohong, Slater, Louise J., Berghuijs, Wouter R., Wada, Yoshihide, Rosenfeld, Daniel, Gou, Jiaojiao, Wu, Yi, Tarolli, Paolo, Borrelli, Pasquale, Panagos, Panos, Alexander, Lisa V., Zhang, Qi, Hu, Jinlong, Min, Seung-Ki, Samaniego, Luis, Duan, Qingyun, Destouni, Georgia, Marengo, Jose A., Modarres, Reza, Sorooshian, Soroosh
Issue&Volume: 2026-03-25
Abstract: Reliable future climate projections and water deficiency assessments require precipitation observations that are both spatially comprehensive and temporally complete, yet many global regions still suffer from observation sparsity1,2. Here we evaluate the distribution of 221,483 internationally exchanged precipitation gauges worldwide, with records across 1900–2022, and further explore where new gauges are most needed under different scenarios. We find that at present only 13.4% of the global land surface meets the World Meteorological Organization requirements for annual precipitation monitoring, indicating widespread scarcity that has serious socioeconomic implications. Europe has the highest continental gauge density (2.4 gauges per 1,000km2), with Germany leading among countries over 50,000km2 (22.4 gauges per 1,000km2). Globally, 25% of land surface already requires urgent expansion of gauge networks because of climate variability, including northern South America, northern North America, Central Africa and southern Asia. Considering projected precipitation changes and socioeconomic conditions under a high-emission scenario further identifies high-need regions in India, Greenland, Bolivia and China because of climate sensitivity and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, increasing this share to 32.1% of global land. Our findings highlight important gaps in global precipitation monitoring that require strategic investments in new gauges and underscore the need for open data access.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10300-5
Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10300-5
期刊信息
Nature：《自然》，创刊于1869年。隶属于施普林格·自然出版集团，最新IF：69.504
投稿链接：http://www.nature.com/authors/submit_manuscript.html
