近日，美国加州大学欧文分校John D. Patterson团队研究了过去1100年大气H2的变化。该项研究成果发表在2026年2月4日出版的《自然》杂志上。

若氢能源技术作为绿色能源转型的一部分被广泛采用，预计人为排放的氢气（H2）将有所增加。尽管大气中的氢气本身不具辐射效应，但它会通过对甲烷、臭氧和水蒸气的化学作用加剧全球气候变暖。预测大气对人为扰动的响应具有挑战性，部分原因是现代仪器观测记录的时间跨度有限。对冰芯中氢气的测量可拓展观测记录，为研究长期尺度下人为与自然扰动对氢气水平的影响及其生物地球化学调控机制提供依据。然而，由于氢气在冰体中具有高渗透性，冰芯氢气测量难度较大。

研究组基于格陵兰岛冰芯样本，重建了过去千年大气氢气的历史记录。数据显示，从工业化前到现代社会，大气氢气浓度上升了70%至111%（2σ置信区间），这与化石燃料燃烧直接排放的增加以及大气中氢气前体物浓度的上升趋势一致。工业化前的记录还显示，小冰期期间氢气水平下降了4%至25%（2σ置信区间），表明氢气生物地球化学过程可能对气候变化具有敏感性。研究结果提示，在评估人为氢气排放增加对辐射强迫的影响时，需充分考虑氢气的源与汇对气候变暖的敏感度。

附：英文原文

Title: Atmospheric H2 variability over the past 1,100 years

Author: Patterson, John D., Aydin, Murat, Miranda, Miranda H., Saltzman, Eric S.

Issue&Volume: 2026-02-04

Abstract: Anthropogenic emissions of hydrogen (H2) are expected to rise if H2 energy technology is widely implemented as part of the green energy transition1,2. Although atmospheric H2 is not radiatively active, it warms the Earth’s climate through chemical effects on methane, ozone and water vapour1,2,3,4,5,6. Predicting the atmospheric response to anthropogenic perturbations is challenging, in part because of the limited duration of the modern instrumental record7. Ice core measurements of H2 can extend the observational record, providing information about anthropogenic and natural perturbations and the biogeochemical controls on H2 levels over long timescales. However, ice core measurements of H2 are challenging because of the high permeability of H2 in ice8,9. Here we present an ice core record of atmospheric H2 recovered from a Greenland ice core, spanning the past millennium. The record shows a 70–111% (2σ) rise in atmospheric H2 from the pre-industrial to the modern era, consistent with increasing direct emissions from fossil fuel burning and increased atmospheric concentrations of H2 precursors. The pre-industrial record also shows a 4–25% (2σ) decrease in H2 levels during the Little Ice Age (LIA), indicating that H2 biogeochemistry may be sensitive to climate change. The findings suggest that the sensitivity of H2 sources and sinks to climate warming should be considered in estimates of the radiative consequences of rising anthropogenic H2 emissions.

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10099-1

Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10099-1